I appreciate your thinking and analysis on this topic as well as your insights on other topics too. Such a pleasure to read an in-depth knowledgeable piece. I learn something from you with every post. In this day and age of bite sized surface analyses, we desperately need to dig into the details and because we’re all flooded with so much information and because we have day jobs we need thinkers like you. Thank you for this one today. 🇨🇦
It’s a good piece. The key miscalculation by the Americans is pursuing two mutually incompatible goals: “zero sum trade actions” and “countering Chinese emerging dominance through friendshoring. Either one is eminently doable - “America Alone” or “Fortress North America” - but both together? Impossible. The more the Trump team gives in to their malformed “I’m the star quarterback; cafeteria rules don’t apply to me” personality profiles, the more that the very allies they need will begin to look elsewhere. With apologies for the juvenile analogy - but seriously, this the level at which the Trump officials think - you can’t be a dick to me in the cafeteria and then quietly come asking to borrow my homework later that afternoon. Try it and you’re gonna get a big old helping of GFY: let’s talk about how much that homework is worth to you and what you’re going to do for it.
Good article, capturing the delicate, and yet crude and bullying, state of CUSMA “negotiations” to this point. However, having been involved in labour negotiations, myself, I’m not sure I would call these talks “negotiations”. They’re more like a sinister theatre where the mad clown of the apocalypse tantalizes with just how close he can dance to the abyss.
You suggest that maintaining the strategy of tripartite negotiations would be the best path open to us. I agree. However, I have never yet heard Sheinbaum utter support for working with Canada in these negotiations. I hope that I’m wrong.
Neither have I heard much from the Canadian government about support for Mexico – but then, Carney doesn’t tend to talk much except when it is a calculated move.
I suspect there is a lot of discussion behind closed doors, but I see very little value to either Mexico or Canada being open about the contents of such talks.
Sheinbaum, doesn't make many public statements about the trilateral negotiations. However, her position seems to aligns closely with ours, while trying not to enrage Captain Orange's irrational personality....
What an excellent article! Your explanations regarding the strengths and weaknesses of multilateral negations are very important to the understanding of the complexities that Canada faces in the CUSMA negotiations.
You have reduced my stress level considerably. Thank you very much!
Very interesting article. I have wondered for a long time why Mexico and Canada don't get together to weaken the US side. Seems to me a nice start would be for Canada to indicate that the next round must take place in Canada. If not, then no deal is better than a bad deal. To make matters better, Mexico could enter the picture in an apparent move to solve the issue by inviting the US come and negotiate in Mexico. If the US says no, then no deal is better than a bad deal.
I really think there is a lot of power in putting Mexico and Canada on one side against the US. If nothing else, it will complicate the lives of Trump, Lutnick, Bessent, et al.
I have not heard that Carney and Mexico are talking. And that is probably the reason right there.
Thank you again for this enlightening article. It made me think. A lot.
BRILLIANT!!! And it covers all the “bases” that I’ve had great concerns about. Thank you. And as I read, well really read along as I listened, I couldn’t help thinking that not only is Carney doing as you’ve outlined, from the moment he stepped into leadership, but also that not only is PP totally inept, unable to do the least of these manoeuvres, I don’t think he has the ability to even be able to understand your treatise- to be able to make any sense of it. So again I must say that Mark Carney coming forward is the very best thing that could have happened for Canada 🇨🇦 and Canadians. I say not just for these fraught times, but for any time.
Thanks for the reply. And you’re most welcome!! As I said, I thought the piece was frankly phenomenal - for many reasons. I do also sincerely believe that Carney is excellent, period - in addition to his value to us in this moment. Yours and the one from AB Resistance, oh, also one from the “Geezer” were the three best ones I’ve read in a while. So I’ve been busily sharing.
Oh right! Let’s not forget Mary Simon. Love her - and thanks for the reminder! And might I remind people that it was Trudeau who appointed her? It really disgusts me the hate mongering directed at him. Sure, he was entitled and lacked some ethical values. But he also accomplished a lot. The last part - just my opinion. Anyway - good job my friend, and thank you!
All of this makes perfectly logical sense. Too bad we're dealing with a gangster who does not follow logic, cannot be trusted to honour trade deals, and only cares about what's in it for him. The rest of the US be damned.
Just to make sure, wouldn’t be the worst idea for your excellent article to be digitally clipped by the summer intern for this week’s required reading by Team Carney!
Thank god that Canada has Carney. He will deliver the best outcome for Canada with sovereignty and independence critical elements of any agreement. I am sure there is a plan B being worked on should a no deal over a bad deal be the result of the negotiations with the boys who think they have all the cards. Those boys are in for a rude awakening. There are plans to replace what is lost, and to continue to work on those areas where the demand will still exist en without a trade agreement such as potash, uranium, nickel, hydro electric power etc. Canada will implement a major projects program on steroids and open new Canadian auto plants with new partners to replace whatever is lost. There will be large speed bumps but the country has experienced them before and Canadians will be united in building a new future unshackled from the American oligarchy. I think Canada has all the cards they need to build the country that is a model for all mid tier countries. We will ever be on the menu.
I wonder if anyone on the USA negotiating team recognizes this dynamic. Clearly Trump and Lutnick do not. Did they retain enough smart technocrats to negotiate effectively?
I appreciate your thinking and analysis on this topic as well as your insights on other topics too. Such a pleasure to read an in-depth knowledgeable piece. I learn something from you with every post. In this day and age of bite sized surface analyses, we desperately need to dig into the details and because we’re all flooded with so much information and because we have day jobs we need thinkers like you. Thank you for this one today. 🇨🇦
“I can no other answer make but thanks,And thanks; and ever thanks”
– Twelfth Night, Act III, Shakespeare
It’s a good piece. The key miscalculation by the Americans is pursuing two mutually incompatible goals: “zero sum trade actions” and “countering Chinese emerging dominance through friendshoring. Either one is eminently doable - “America Alone” or “Fortress North America” - but both together? Impossible. The more the Trump team gives in to their malformed “I’m the star quarterback; cafeteria rules don’t apply to me” personality profiles, the more that the very allies they need will begin to look elsewhere. With apologies for the juvenile analogy - but seriously, this the level at which the Trump officials think - you can’t be a dick to me in the cafeteria and then quietly come asking to borrow my homework later that afternoon. Try it and you’re gonna get a big old helping of GFY: let’s talk about how much that homework is worth to you and what you’re going to do for it.
Thank you for your thoughtful words, and for taking the time to think about them. I appreciate it.
This is brilliant and a must read!
Thank you, Donna. You’re very kind.
Good article, capturing the delicate, and yet crude and bullying, state of CUSMA “negotiations” to this point. However, having been involved in labour negotiations, myself, I’m not sure I would call these talks “negotiations”. They’re more like a sinister theatre where the mad clown of the apocalypse tantalizes with just how close he can dance to the abyss.
You suggest that maintaining the strategy of tripartite negotiations would be the best path open to us. I agree. However, I have never yet heard Sheinbaum utter support for working with Canada in these negotiations. I hope that I’m wrong.
Neither have I heard much from the Canadian government about support for Mexico – but then, Carney doesn’t tend to talk much except when it is a calculated move.
I suspect there is a lot of discussion behind closed doors, but I see very little value to either Mexico or Canada being open about the contents of such talks.
Either way, we’ll find out.
Thanks for the thoughtful post. I appreciate it!
Sheinbaum, doesn't make many public statements about the trilateral negotiations. However, her position seems to aligns closely with ours, while trying not to enrage Captain Orange's irrational personality....
What an excellent article! Your explanations regarding the strengths and weaknesses of multilateral negations are very important to the understanding of the complexities that Canada faces in the CUSMA negotiations.
You have reduced my stress level considerably. Thank you very much!
I’m glad you found it useful. Thank you for commenting. I appreciate it!
How ignorant would somebody have to be to think that “America holds all the cards“ 🃏
How ignorant is a question many are asking…
Very interesting article. I have wondered for a long time why Mexico and Canada don't get together to weaken the US side. Seems to me a nice start would be for Canada to indicate that the next round must take place in Canada. If not, then no deal is better than a bad deal. To make matters better, Mexico could enter the picture in an apparent move to solve the issue by inviting the US come and negotiate in Mexico. If the US says no, then no deal is better than a bad deal.
I really think there is a lot of power in putting Mexico and Canada on one side against the US. If nothing else, it will complicate the lives of Trump, Lutnick, Bessent, et al.
I have not heard that Carney and Mexico are talking. And that is probably the reason right there.
Thank you again for this enlightening article. It made me think. A lot.
And thank you back, Claude! If it made you think, then my work here is done.
BRILLIANT!!! And it covers all the “bases” that I’ve had great concerns about. Thank you. And as I read, well really read along as I listened, I couldn’t help thinking that not only is Carney doing as you’ve outlined, from the moment he stepped into leadership, but also that not only is PP totally inept, unable to do the least of these manoeuvres, I don’t think he has the ability to even be able to understand your treatise- to be able to make any sense of it. So again I must say that Mark Carney coming forward is the very best thing that could have happened for Canada 🇨🇦 and Canadians. I say not just for these fraught times, but for any time.
Thank you for your kind words. They mean a lot.
And I have to agree with you – Carney is the right person at the right time.
But then, so is Mary Simon, the Governor-General.
Thanks for the reply. And you’re most welcome!! As I said, I thought the piece was frankly phenomenal - for many reasons. I do also sincerely believe that Carney is excellent, period - in addition to his value to us in this moment. Yours and the one from AB Resistance, oh, also one from the “Geezer” were the three best ones I’ve read in a while. So I’ve been busily sharing.
Oh right! Let’s not forget Mary Simon. Love her - and thanks for the reminder! And might I remind people that it was Trudeau who appointed her? It really disgusts me the hate mongering directed at him. Sure, he was entitled and lacked some ethical values. But he also accomplished a lot. The last part - just my opinion. Anyway - good job my friend, and thank you!
excellent …with thanks !
All of this makes perfectly logical sense. Too bad we're dealing with a gangster who does not follow logic, cannot be trusted to honour trade deals, and only cares about what's in it for him. The rest of the US be damned.
I pretty sure Carney knows with whom he is dealing…
I certainly have faith in him. And he knows all deals with Trump are temporary and could change on a dime.
An excellent and thoughtful post. Much appreciated.
Thank you for the kind words, Keith, and for commenting!
I think you are reading Carney’s mind. Not many can operate at that level. Kudos
I suspect there’s more than a little space between Carney’s mentation and mine, but thank you for the kind words.
Just to make sure, wouldn’t be the worst idea for your excellent article to be digitally clipped by the summer intern for this week’s required reading by Team Carney!
Canada’s best leverage points will be
….pressure on S&P and slow downs in the US hinterland.
Thank you for your expertise, explaining and knowledge. Enjoyed your article
I’m glad you found it worth your time – and thank you for commenting!
What about applying the game if GO strategies to this "game"?
Especially w.r.t. creating & isolating market segments.
I did think about using GO, but (a) I’m not as familiar with the strategies of GO as chess, and (b) it’s not as widely known in the West.
Thanks for reading, and for taking the time to comment.
Thank god that Canada has Carney. He will deliver the best outcome for Canada with sovereignty and independence critical elements of any agreement. I am sure there is a plan B being worked on should a no deal over a bad deal be the result of the negotiations with the boys who think they have all the cards. Those boys are in for a rude awakening. There are plans to replace what is lost, and to continue to work on those areas where the demand will still exist en without a trade agreement such as potash, uranium, nickel, hydro electric power etc. Canada will implement a major projects program on steroids and open new Canadian auto plants with new partners to replace whatever is lost. There will be large speed bumps but the country has experienced them before and Canadians will be united in building a new future unshackled from the American oligarchy. I think Canada has all the cards they need to build the country that is a model for all mid tier countries. We will ever be on the menu.
I wonder if anyone on the USA negotiating team recognizes this dynamic. Clearly Trump and Lutnick do not. Did they retain enough smart technocrats to negotiate effectively?